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VOO:NYSE ARCAVanguard S&P 500 ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-21 - not real-time

$682.21

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

VOO is trading at 682.21, just below its 20‑day (684.93) and 50‑day (684.61) simple moving averages, signaling short‑term pressure while still sitting comfortably above the 200‑day SMA (641.01) that underpins a longer‑term bullish bias. The RSI of 47.4 is neutral, but the MACD shows a bearish divergence (line 1.78 vs. signal 2.42) and a negative histogram, suggesting downside momentum may linger. Volume trends are decreasing, and the 30‑day volatility sits at 15.7%, indicating modest price swings. Despite these technical headwinds, the ETF benefits from a solid support level around 668.10 and a resistance near 694.50, while the market sentiment is extremely optimistic, reflected by a Fear & Greed Index of 88.13 (Extreme Greed).
Fundamentally, VOO offers a low expense ratio of 0.03% and zero tracking error, delivering a robust YTD return of 10.19% and a modest dividend yield of 1.07%. Its diversified large‑blend composition reduces sector concentration risk, and the ETF’s high liquidity (average 10‑day volume ~5.28 M shares) mitigates trading frictions. With a beta near market neutrality (~1.0) and a max drawdown of just under 9.2%, VOO presents a balanced risk‑return profile for investors seeking exposure to the S&P 500.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price slightly below 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs
  • Bearish MACD crossover and negative histogram
  • Decreasing volume and moderate 30‑day volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Price above 200‑day SMA indicating sustained bullish trend
  • Strong YTD performance (+10.19%) and low expense ratio
  • High market optimism (Fear & Greed Index 88.13) supporting equity upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified large‑cap exposure with zero tracking error
  • Historical mean annual return around 19.5% and low expense ratio
  • Stable beta near 1 and modest max drawdown limiting downside risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio3.00%
AUM$1670.9B
Inception Date2016-06-24
Avg Daily Volume5,283,820
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield1.07%

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI47.4
Support$668.10
Resistance$694.50
MA 20$684.93
MA 50$684.61
MA 200$641.01
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.13

Risk Assessment

Beta1.00
Volatility15.73%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.